Responsible Scaling Policy

Prices whether AI control mitigations — monitoring, honeypots, deployment-time defences — will be strong enough by 2030 to stop a misaligned model that is actively trying to cause catastrophe.

Prices whether an actual AI-caused catastrophe occurs given that models already have the capability to cause one, with control mitigations as the remaining line of defence.

Prices whether frontier AI models cross capability thresholds sufficient to make a catastrophe physically possible by 2030, on the strict reading its downstream edge requires.

Prices whether a frontier model, by 2030, possesses the capability to sabotage oversight — disabling monitors, sandbagging evaluations, subverting supervision — with no parent conditions attached.

Prices whether AI models will deliberately mislead their overseers by 2035, and why the estimate turns on how strictly that bar is read.