How Rogue AIs may Arise

Prices whether an actual AI-caused catastrophe occurs given that models already have the capability to cause one, with control mitigations as the remaining line of defence.

Prices the chance that humanity loses meaningful control over AI systems and the trajectory they set, unconditionally, by 2035.

Prices whether it becomes possible and affordable by 2070 to build AI systems that are highly capable, plan on their own, and model their own situation — the step every other state here rests on.

Prices whether an actual AI-caused catastrophe occurs given that models already have the capability to cause one, with control mitigations as the remaining line of defence.

Prices whether permanent human disempowerment by power-seeking misaligned AI would itself destroy humanity's long-term potential, given every upstream condition holds by 2070.

Prices whether deployed misaligned AI systems actually seek power over people in high-impact ways, given that such systems are feasible, misaligned by default, and built anyway.

Prices whether, given feasible powerful agentic AI and strong incentives to build it, aligned systems turn out much harder to build than misaligned ones that still look worth deploying.